2019 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray-QB-Oklahoma-5’10”-207-1st Overall-92

Ever since the combine this guy has been considered a lock for the top pick in April’s draft. It was a bit of a late push for the Heisman winner, although not as late as the man he followed at Oklahoma. I’m struck by this question, if Baker Mayfield doesn’t have a Rookie of the Year type season, is Kyler Murray even in the discussion at first overall? Let’s imagine he played like Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold as a rookie? Which is to say he seriously struggled at times. I don’t think Kyler Murray sniffs the top 10. Baker’s question marks were about height, character, and playing in the wide open scheme surrounded by 5 star talents. Questions about Murray revolve around his sub 5’10” height, the same Lincoln Riley offense, and only one year of college experience. Mayfield won me over because I saw him play elite football for 3 seasons, improving all the time. Whatever character concerns people had I believed they were overruled by the fire and attitude he brought to his football team. Oklahoma players clearly loved Baker, I can’t say the same for Kyler.

Let’s start with the good. Kyler Murray has arm talent. Arm strength, accuracy, downfield passing ability, throwing on the move, you name it you get it from this kid. He also has big time escapability. This is where the Russell Wilson comparison could not be more spot on. Murray can execute designed runs, but he’s a bit of a pinball and no one wants their quarterback taking big hits. He has terrific speed for a quarterback as evidenced by over 1000 rushing yards in 2018. He ain’t Lamar Jackson, but he’s easily as good in the ground game as Deshaun Watson.

Now for the downsides. My number one problem with Kyler is all too often he’s a look downfield then tuck and run quarterback. It makes sense, he’s great at it. But at the next level he’ll need to read down field, create time, then look downfield again. That’s what Wilson, Rodgers, Mahomes, and all the other great quarterbacks do. In college Baker Mayfield was already doing this, Kyler needs to develop it. As for his height, yeah it’s not ideal. People point to his low percentage of batted passes to say his height isn’t an issue, I don’t think one stat can alleviate those concerns. The more important issue for me is his stature. He doesn’t break tackles in the pocket the way Wilson and Mayfield can, Kyler doesn’t possess that playing strength. Murray weighed in over 200 pounds at the combine and did not run because he spent the prior month stuffing his face and chasing with Imodium. During the fall his playing weight was rumored to be around 190. That’s a real issue. You can be short and escapable, but in the NFL defenders are going to get their hands on the quarterback, and if you want to use your mobility you need to fight through those hands.

At the end of the day, all these evaluations boil down to a gut decision. As far as I know, no program has produced stud quarterbacks back to back. I don’t think Kyler Murray lifts up his entire team like a top quarterback should. Murray’s physical talent is clear, but can his scrambling ability be utilized primarily as a passer? Because if it mostly helps him as a runner, I don’t think his body can stand up to the punishment.

Ryan Finley-N.C. State-6’4”-213-Day 3-90

Here’s my favorite QB prospect this year. It’s hard to pinpoint what makes you believe in a qb prospect, but I think Finley’s performances against Clemson were the genesis for me. I know they got their shit kicked in against the Tigers in 2018 just like everyone else did, but they were extremely competitive the two previous campaigns. It feels like he’s in full command of the offense, spreads it around the yard, and makes plays at all three levels. 

Finley has an interesting back story. He spent 2 years at Boise State before being ousted in favor of a 4 star recruit better suited to their vertical passing attack. In response, Ryan graduated early, transferred to N.C. State, and started 39 games, winning 25 of them. His completion percentage increased every year going from 60% to 65% to 67.4%. His yards per attempt went from 7.6 to 7.4 to 8.1 with each season.

When you look at Ryan Finley, nothing really stands out. He has good height, but a little light for the position. Not real athletic, doesn’t have above average arm strength, didn’t exactly light it up in college. But there’s something about him that I like. He moves well in the pocket, delivers the ball accurately, anticipates throws over the middle of the field, and the offense feels dangerous with him at the helm. I think he has a knack, and played well against the toughest competition. 

Dwayne Haskins-Ohio State-6’3”-231-Top 15-85

Another one and done college football player. Haskins lit it up in his one season starting for the Buckeyes to the tune of breaking virtually every single season passing record. It’s so odd to see an Ohio State QB who’s focal point is his arm, not his legs. Haskins has an NFL arm and is able to throw will accuracy for the most part. He shows the ability to anticipate throws particularly over the middle.

For me, Haskins cons have mounted. He lacks athleticism, which is by no means a deal breaker, but I don’t see enough pocket awareness. That’s essential for any quarterback and may be the number one reason prospects fail. Also, he is not in good shape. He’s a pudgy guy and looked downright out of shape at the combine which screams “I don’t care enough about this”. Big red flag for me. Most importantly, he’s extremely calm and laid back. Like even more so than Mariota. I’m having trouble thinking of a really successful quarterback who wasn’t a leader or had some fire to him. And if you’re drafting a QB in the first round, you want someone who has the potential to be really successful, not just a placeholder.

Dwayne has serious arm talent. I think mentally he’s pretty advanced for a young guy. His makeup, meaning leadership and discipline, are huge worries and drop him into round two for me. I think the Jared Goff comparison is actually really accurate based on the shotgun spread, quick read scheme he comes from. The difference is Goff played with subpar talent, started as a true freshman and showed consistent improvement over three years as a starter. Haskins played with 5 stars for one season. Now he set the Big 10 on fire, and could very well be a Goff-type quarterback at the next level, but I’m not convinced he can put it together.

Drew Lock-Missouri-6’4”-228-1st Round-81

Drew Lock is the prototypical bust prospect in my mind. He’s got the huge arm, great measurables, cocky personality (from combine and hair style), and great stats yet limited wins in college. There’s so many guys that fit the comparison it’s unreal. Jay Cutler, Kyle Boller, Paxton Lynch, they’re all spot on. Ryan Tannehill is another possible comparison, although Tannehill loves football more than Lock.

It’s not fair to sum up a prospect with those simplistic comparisons and call it a day. Lock has really good size and is a solid athlete, similar to Josh Rosen. Drew has an absolute howitzer but shows the ability to put some touch on the ball, which is important (take note Jacoby Brissett). Playing at Missouri you’re in a tough spot competing against the SEC week in and week out, but they’ve been a good program and I would expect higher win totals from a first round QB. The big problem I have with Lock and why I would bet a lot of money he’ll never be a playoff QB is that he seems to have the personality combination of cocky and quiet. That feels like it will do the opposite of endear him to teammates. You don’t have to be a rah-rah vocal leader all the time, but I haven’t heard anything good about this kid’s leadership traits. The lack of wins in college is another indication of that in my mind. I just foresee this kid falling into that heap of extremely talented quarterbacks who couldn’t rally a team and didn’t love the game enough to improve.

Daniel Jones-Duke-6’5”-221-1st Round-77

The absolute definition of a game manager. I love these rumors that he’s going to get drafted on opening night, because Daniel Jones is built to be a career back-up quarterback. I think he’ll be a great back-up, and that’s valuable don’t kid yourself. But he’ll get 20-40 starts with some team before they realize what’s right in front of their face, this kid can’t make plays down the field. He’s great at running an offense, makes pre-snap reads and hit checkdowns. But he can’t make plays. Daniel lacks pocket presence too which leads to more dump-offs, sacks, and errant throws.

Over three years as a starter in Durham he made virtually zero progress statistically with his completion percentage numbers at 63%, 57%, 61% and yards per attempt running 6.6, 5.9, 6.8. Although the teams win number did increase from 4 to 7 to 8. I think Jones is smart, talented, and can be a strong quiet leader. However, I don’t think he is a plus player in any category other than team chemistry which is ideal for a back-up. He’ll have one of those RG3, David Carr, Mark Sanchez careers where he’s drafted too early, gets his shot, fails, and will spend 10 years and make an incredible living being a back-up.