2016 NFL Draft: Quarterback

Very interesting class of QB prospects that reminds me a lot of the 2011 group of Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Mallett. Four of those guys went in the top 15 picks, I wonder if we’ll see another run on QBs this year. The reason it reminds me of 2011 is the flaws in each prospect but the depth of fringe 1st round caliber prospects.

Jared Goff-QB-Cal-6’4”-215-1st Round-97

I had the opportunity to watch him play at the Rose Bowl against a very good UCLA team. Goff was clearly the centerpiece of the Cal team, reaching 40+ attempts in half the games this season. The offense they ran in Berkeley does not help his draft stock much. It was very similar to the Baylor and Texas Tech offenses predicated on a play fake and initial read followed by a wide receiver screen, slant pass, or deep ball (which he throws better than anyone in the draft). Very limited complexity in both reads and throws. Although he’s only 21 years old, he’s a 3 year starter in a legit D-1 conference and has made progress consistently (his INT numbers doubled from his sophomore to junior seasons though), bringing the Bears from a 1-11 campaign in 2013 to 8 wins in 2015. As for his physical traits, he’s got good height and a high release. Playing at 210 lbs he’s a bit on the light side. I like his play fakes and balance in the pocket. He shows the ability to re-adjust his feet and get in a proper throwing rhythm. Average arm strength is a slight concern but he throws accurately and with confidence. His hand measurements (9”) might be blown out of proportion. Bottomline is he comes from a purely shotgun spread scheme which will slow his transition, and at 21 years old and a bit on the scrawny side he should take his time. However, he was the first freshman QB to start the season at Cal and he looks like has a great feel for the game (despite taking too many sacks), so I wouldn’t bet against him. Something about him gives me a Carson Palmer feel.

Carson Wentz-QB-North Dakota State-6’5”-237-Top 15-96

Big prospect, moves well, like Alex Smith with power, but not quite Andrew Luck speed. Experience in the shotgun and under center which puts him further ahead in development than Goff, especially with the pre-snap adjustments Wentz executes. This dude has an absolute sling on him, although his delivery tends to be flat footed and not as elevated as you’d like, reminiscent of Cam Newton. Coming from D-1AA there’s definitely concerns about the level of play, but North Dakota State has won 5 consecutive national championships. The biggest issue for me is the fact he’s only had 23 starts, only 7 this past fall due to injuries. Less than 2 years of starts at an FCS program says to me that he will need a ton of reps to make the transition. On the field you see a top flight quarterback prospect, but the limited experience at a lower tier of competition puts him behind Blake Bortles for me. I could see this kid develop into a Jim Kelly type.

Dak Prescott-QB-Mississippi State-6’2”-226-3rd Day-87

Seems like a special player. Every few years there’s a QB prospect that stands out to me. First it was Troy Smith at Ohio State, next it was Russell Wilson at N.C. State (yes before Wisconsin) and since it’s been Rayne Dakota Prescott. He dismantled Auburn’s SEC title defense in 2014. He became a far better passer as a Senior this past fall (66% completions, 29:5 TD:INT) despite the team not winning as many games as the previous season. In back to back seasons he led the team in passing and rushing (588 yards and 10 TD’s in 2015), something only Tim Jesus Tebow has done in SEC history. Dak solidified himself as a one man wrecking crew on offense, which is all well and good in college (anyone remember Ell Roberson, didn’t think so) but why would he do well in the NFL? Tebow certainly didn’t (despite the fact he has as many playoff victories as Carson Palmer). The reason is the way he addressed his teammates during a losing effort this fall. He did everything in his power to will a win, came up short but I loved the leadership. Also the growth in the passing game impressed me, 61% completions to 66%, 11 Ints to 5 from Junior to Senior seasons. I always regretted not standing on the table for Russell Wilson so I’m not going to make that mistake with Dak. Take him early in the second round if you are the Rams. Do it! He’s a better passer coming out of college than Cam Newton was, but he definitely does not have the same potential tools that Cam had. Btw monster 11” hands. I worry about pocket movement.

Paxton Lynch-QB-Memphis-6’7”-244-1st-2nd Round-87

This guy is an intriguing prospect. He got some hype in the fall as the possible top quarterback prospect but his stock has since dipped. Physically he reminds me of Ryan Leaf, which surprisingly is a compliment. At his stature he will naturally draw comparisons to Ryan Mallett and Brock Osweiler, and judging from the film he’s pretty close to where those guys were coming out of college. The obvious knock is playing in a lesser conference (AAC) than those two who came out of the SEC and PAC 10 respectively. When Mallett came out I gave him a low first round grade (mistake) and this guy is probably a cleaner prospect. Mallett had character concerns and a big windup, Lynch’s drawbacks are level or competition and a shotgun centric offense. That being said Lynch has NFL arm strength, moves very well for a tall QB, and is a 3 year starter and 2-time All Conference QB. I think he compares favorably to Osweiler as a prospect, but like so many QB prospects, the jump from the shotgun spread to a more diverse offense could be troublesome.

Christian Hackenberg-QB-Penn State-6’4”-223-2nd Day-79

Hackenberg is a very interesting prospect. He looks like an NFL quarterback but has serious accuracy issues (53% completions). He played in a pro style offense and has experience in the shotgun, but didn’t particularly excel in either. He had a great freshman year under Bill O’Brien but pretty pedestrian Sophomore and Junior seasons under James Franklin. Add to that he blamed his coach for not putting him in position to succeed and this kid looks like a 4th rounder. That being said I think he’s got good arm talent and probably has high football IQ and I’m willing to overlook how statuesque he is in the pocket and give him a 3rd round grade. Production concerns put him near Nick Foles as a prospect, though he looks better on the field. Plus Hackenberg has started all 38 games in college.Experience? Check.

Cardale Jones-QB-Ohio State-6’5”-254-3rd Round-69

What a story. Jones goes from 3rd string QB all the way to starter and star on the national championship team in 2014. He followed that up by losing his job back to J.T. Barrett and now he’s moving on to the NFL. Physically he has all kinds of talent. Huge arm, great size and mobility, unfortunately he’s been very inconsistent. With only 11 career starts playing in a spread running scheme he’s such a project I can’t give him higher than a 4th round grade despite his clear talent.

Kevin Hogan-QB-Stanford-6’3”-218-3rd Day-67

I was lucky enough to be present for one of his first games, 2012 at Notre Dame. For years I’ve thought he looks like Andrew Luck’s dumber twin. One NFL executive said he’s the most pro ready quarterback in the draft, which may well be true right now but won’t be after week 3 this fall. The reason he loses stock for me and becomes a back-up quality quarterback is the lack of progress his last 2 seasons in Palo Alto.

Connor Cook-QB-Michigan State-6’4”-217-2nd Day-66

Oh boy has this guy generated a lot of chatter. Going into the 2015 season many people had Cook as the top QB in this year’s draft. Since then he’s dropped precipitously despite the fact he won another Big 10 championship and put Michigan State into the college football playoff. Maybe it’s the rumors that he’s obnoxious, or skipping the Senior Bowl, or maybe it’s just taking down the number one guy, but he will be available in round 2 for someone who hasn’t given up on him. On the field he looks similar to Flacco (not quite as tall). Reasonable mobility, solid arm strength, and his accuracy looks ok although he’s never completed more than 60% of his passes. His time as a Spartan gave him experience playing in a pro style system against the best teams in the nation, unfortunately he never stepped up to the point of dominance. His offenses remained run first even after Jeremy Langford left. I just don’t see a playmaker, add to that character concerns and I put him in round 4.