2016 NFL Draft: Receiver

We’ve been spoiled in recent years with incredible wide receiver classes. This one comes back down to Earth with reasonable questions if there is even a number one target in the entire class.

Josh Doctson-WR-TCU-6’2”-202-1st/2nd Round-91

The Wyoming transfer tested about as well as he could’ve hoped in Indianapolis showing decent speed with a 4.50 40 backed up with excellent quicks at 6.84 and 4.08 seconds in the 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle respectively. Tack on a 41” vertical leap and the second best broad jump amongst receivers (Ricardo Louis beat him by an inch) and you have an explosive athlete with size. As for production, this guy comes out off back to back 1,000 yard seasons including this past fall reeling in 79 catches for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns in just 11 games (wrist injury). Granted the Big 12 isn’t the best conference, but those numbers are extremely legit. Doctson was targeted on 36.5% of passes coming close to the Randy (Moss) Ratio of 40%. On film he shows the ability to go up and get jump balls which is imperative given his modest downfield speed. Pure hands catcher with massive 9.875” mits. He’s the best comparison to DeAndre Hopkins in this year’s draft. I wonder how an athlete like this wound up at Wyoming, and he comes out at 23 years old because of the transfer so you have to wonder how much growth he’ll have at the next level. Bottomline this kid looks and tested like a superb athlete (could use more muscle) and wins downfield on contested balls. Some route running polish and he’s got the best shot of being a true #1 receiver in this draft.

LaQuon Treadwell-WR-Ole Miss-6’2”-221-1st-90

Treadwell is a real interesting prospect for me. Watching him the past couple years I thought he was at least 6’4”, but taking away 2 inches and clocking in at 4.63 in the 40 at his pro day brings up a few red flags. That being said he was the #1 receiver coming out of high school and contributed in big ways in each of his three years with the Rebels. He moves very well for his size, both laterally and vertically playing slightly faster than he tested. Long 33.5” arms and big ass hands (9.5”) that he uses perfectly. A lot of people are comparing him to DeAndre Hopkins which I don’t see given Hopkins ridiculous production in college. Laquon only had 1,153 yards in 2015. But I think Treadwell is capable of being an Alshon Jeffery type player with more physicality.

Corey Coleman-WR-Baylor-5’11”-194-1st/2nd Round-89

Instant sour taste in my mouth watching his film against West Virginia. He did absolutely nothing on running plays, didn’t even line up in a true stance nevermind firing off the ball and hitting somebody. Now that’s off my chest, Coleman has something special when the ball is coming his way, in a Steve Smith way. Coleman was enormously productive this last year for the Bears hauling in 74 grabs for 1,363 yards and a whopping 20 scores on the way to a Biletnikoff award for top receiver in the nation. Plus he missed the bowl game with a sports hernia which would have tacked on more stats. The same injury limited his combine participation but he did run a 4.37 40 at his pro day for what it’s worth. He is not the burner that Will Fuller is but he is a more rounded prospect. Those running plays make me worry about his character, but that just might have been the coaching at Baylor. Also, by all accounts he ran about 4 different routes his entire collegiate career so yeah, route work necessary. The best comparison I can think of was Titus Young which does not bode well, still he belongs in the early 2nd.

Will Fuller-WR-Notre Dame-6’0”-186-1st/2nd Round-86

This kid is undoubtedly a supreme athlete. Running a blistering 4.32 at the combine confirms the ‘get deep quick’ speed you see on film. He is your field stretcher even at the next level. This fall he had 1,200+ yards and 14 scores while averaging over 20 yards per catch, and that followed a 1,000 yard campaign as a sophomore. The problem with Fuller is he’s one dimensional. He is a downfield separation receiver with very little variation in his routes. Also, he has small ass hands and seems to body catch everything which is partly why he does not make contested catches like Devin Smith did last year. I think he’s a number 2 receiver who will open things up for tight ends and running backs underneath.

Sterling Shepherd-WR-Oklahoma-5’10”-194-2nd Round-84

Oh boy did I love watching Oklahoma this fall. Shepherd played the Michael Irvin role in their big 3, but he has a very different game than the Playmaker. Operating primarily out of the slot, a role he will continue to fill at the next level, Sterling was very productive catching 86 passes for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns. A four year player at OU, Shepherd is a second generation Sooner following in his late father’s footsteps. He has football in his blood and it shows. He has a good feel for the game, blocks hard despite his size, and shows incredible toughness which is an underratedly important trait in a productive slot receiver (just ask Wes Welker’s cranium). I don’t see much route variation on film, though I do have limited video to watch. Also, he looks quick on the field but tested very average in the 3 cone (7.00), 20 yard shuttle (4.35), and 40 (4.48). He did jump out the gym with a 41” vert though. Large 9.75” hands are definitely a plus, but not necessary for a slot target. And his size is doable but might bring some durability concerns especially with the area of the field he’ll be roaming. All in all he should be a good slot player, might take about 2 years to emerge, but I definitely would not bet against this kid.

Michael Thomas-WR-Ohio State-6’3”-212-2nd Day-84

Big tough receiver with dinner plate hands a surprising YAC ability. Tested about where you’d expect with a 4.57 second 40 yard dash. He comes out of a very run heavy offense at Ohio State which is why his team leading numbers the last two seasons look so pedestrian (799 and 781 yards). Thomas has natural receiving ability but will take some time to develop his route running. Right now he has similar value to Jaelen Strong last year who fell to the 3rd round though I had a higher grade on. Think poor man’s Brandon Marshall with some development.

Braxton Miller-WR-Ohio State-6’1”-201-2nd Day-81

Great story, 2-time Big 10 MVP gets hurt, loses his job to two different guys, then switches to receiver and becomes the best pro prospect of the bunch. Miller displayed his electrifying open field ability again in 2015 and even flashed some receiving skill. He’s obviously a projection who’ll need to develop his receiving ability especially because he’ll be asked to play out of the slot which probably requires the most precise route running. He didn’t run as fast as many expected, clocking in with a 4.50 in the 40 yard dash but he followed that up with an out of this world 6.65 seconds in the 3 cone drill. At this point he’s not as polished as Randall Cobb and doesn’t fly quite like Percy Harvin or Tavon Austin which pushes him to the back end of round 2 for me.

Ricardo Louis-WR-Auburn-6’2”-215-3rd Round/Day-68

Another Auburn Tiger, this guy produced one of the biggest miracle plays in program history catching a game winning touchdown off a tipped pass on 4th and forever against Georgia in 2013. I’ve watched him play for 3 years now and I was very surprised to learn how big he is. Louis has very good speed (4.43s in the 40) and now that I know his dimensions he becomes an intriguing physical prospect. Not a polished receiver by any means, slightly less productive than Sammie Coates last year (Louis had 46 grabs for 716 yards), but a similar physical projection to the next level. Coates was a 3rd round prospect which puts Louis in the 4th.