2017 NFL Draft: Quarterback

2017 NFL Draft Quarterbacks

Most people are calling this a down year at quarterback, that may be the case, but this is still a draft class that can produce several starting quarterbacks at the next level. It reminds me a lot of the 2014 class that featured Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo. No clear number 1 overall pick, but a handful of quality prospects.

Deshaun Watson-QB-Clemson-6’2”-221-1st/2nd Round-97
I’ve been writing this analysis in my head for probably the last 16 months. Everyone knows how successful he was in college, finishing runner-up in the Heisman voting, reaching two national championship games, and winning one in dramatic fashion. I’m getting goosebumps just thinking about it. Let me start with his flaws, and they’re big ones. Number one on that list is accuracy concerns. Throwing 30 interceptions in the last two seasons is unacceptable pure and simple. He sails throws all the time, throws behind guys, it gets ugly out there. He still managed a 67% completion rate but in the NFL windows get tighter and if you can’t throw inside them consistently you find the bench real fast. Second, mechanics. Deshaun throws from a low arm slot which is a real problem at 6’2” trying to throw over monster d-lineman. It has to be part of the reason he sails so many throws too. His footwork needs improvement. His scrambling ability and frequency could have caused bad habits where his feet weren’t always set and balanced. Third, he played in a shotgun spread offense that is the equivalent of a picture book to the NFL’s Ulysses. The calls, reads, and plays are going to be so much more complex it’ll be a challenge getting your head around it and still playing fast. Now basically every other quarterback enters the NFL from that type of offense so the mental learning curve and projection is not unique to Watson. Okay, now that we’re done with the cons let's look at the the pros. He’s a winner, through and through. No stage is too big for him. I have no doubts this kid will work his tail off and improve. That’s probably the main reason I have such a high grade on him. He’s a concerning prospect, but at 21 he’s not done developing and I believe him to the be type of worker who will continuously improve. Also, he has the physical traits you look for. Enough size, solid arm strength, and excellent athleticism displayed by his 4.66 second 40 yard dash. Watson was enormously productive throwing for over 4000 yards in each of the last two years and combining for 76 passing touchdowns and 21 rushing TD’s those two seasons. Monster. Now look, I see his downsides, but are you gonna sit here and tell me Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Marcus Mariota didn’t have major concerns entering the draft? All those guys went top 2 and Deshaun Watson has a third round grade? We’re talking about a kid that was massively successful by any measure against the very best in college football. He has all the physical tools you need plus he has exceptional character and leadership. Those are the ingredients for a franchise QB. Look, every few seasons there’s a quarterback I’m crazy about (Troy Smith, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott) and I’m not always right and I haven’t always stood on the table for them, but Deshaun Watson is one of those guys. He’s not a lock, I’ve only seen one quarterback who was, but he has the tools and there’s every reason to believe he’ll continue to progress. Whoever drafts him (Cleveland?) needs to give him time to develop, maybe see the bench his rookie year.

Mitchell Trubisky-QB-North Carolina-6’2”-222-1st-92

I was all ready to dislike him as a prospect. One year as a starter, everyone saying this is a weak QB class so the top guy ends up getting over hyped etc etc. But put on the tape, this guy is a first round quarterback. He’s a bit on the short side, but has a nice high delivery. Trubisky is right at the top of the list for most accurate quarterbacks I’ve ever scouted. He doesn’t have the strongest arm but he can step into throws and get something on it. The deep ball is there already, at least accuracy-wise, but I don’t see him ever throwing 45 yard darts. Mitchell (Mitch?) is a great athlete for the position. He ran 4.67 in the 40 and a 6.87 second 3 cone. Most importantly he uses that athleticism on the field with designed running plays, scrambles, plus he throws well on the run. The throwing motion is compact but not necessarily quick. North Carolina ran exclusively out of the shotgun so he will have a learning curve under center. His footwork can get lazy at times, and I don’t see a ton of pocket awareness yet. I like that he puts touch on the ball, but sometimes he does that too much or at the wrong times. Bottomline, he has NFL size and athleticism, his accuracy is top notch already, his mechanics and footwork are good not great, arm strength is adequate, performed well in big moments, but he couldn’t beat out Marquise Williams. Williams did lead the Tar Heels to an 11-1 record in 2015 so it’s not like Mitch couldn’t outplay some schlub. He’s a strikingly similar prospect to Andy Dalton. I think Mitch belongs at the end of the first round, should play in a shotgun high completion offense like Kansas City or Philadelphia, and let his accuracy and athleticism sustain drives. I think San Fran and Kyle Shanahan can start something good with this kid, but don’t draft him at 2.

Patrick Mahomes II-QB-Texas Tech-6’2”-225-2nd Day-82

This guy stood out to me at the combine because of his confident physical demeanor and also the way the ball jumps out of his hands. Of all the spread offenses in college football, Texas Tech is at the top of the list for most gimmicky. Operating out of the shotgun running play fakes, wide receiver screens, slants and go routes. Mahomes was very successful though averaging over 420 yards passing per game in 2016. He has solid size for the position and brings plus athleticism. On the run he remains a thrower and does it well. When he powers up on a throw the release time noticeably increases, normal throws have a quick release. His receivers seem so open it makes the evaluation of his decision making very challenging. I can see the comparison to Derek Carr as a prospect. Both came out of spread attacks and had a gunslinger feel to them. Both needed to learn the under center game, improve their footwork and tighten their decision making. I can also see the Bryce Petty comparison as Mahomes ran a nearly identical offense to the one Petty ran at Baylor. Entering the draft as a true junior Patrick has time to improve and being drafted on day 2 should afford him some time to sit and learn. Mahomes is a perfect example of the roll the dice nature of drafting quarterbacks. I think he has tremendous arm talent and you may have to bring him in and just see if he can carry that to the next level. Franchise quarterbacks are so valuable that often you just need to swing at prospects like this. I’ll grade him behind Derek Carr but slightly ahead of Bryce Petty.

DeShone Kizer-QB-Notre Dame-6’4”-233-1st/2nd Round-81

Took me less than a game to see this kid looks like a first round quarterback. It was the 2016 opener against Texas, Kizer was splitting time at quarterback but it became clear by the 4th quarter that this would be his team. He has size, moves well, arm strength and accuracy, and seemed to make plays when they were needed. However, as the season went along the cracks in his armor turned into fissures. DeShone was benched several times throughout the year en route to a 4-8 record. Physically, I view him as a taller Dak Prescott. Kizer can and does run, but he’ll be a pocket passer in the NFL. Unlike Prescott, Kizer was actually getting worse as a passer during his college career. His completion percentage dipped from 62% to 58% between his redshirt freshman and sophomore seasons. His biggest problem seems to be decision making. Everyone says he’s a smart kid, even he compared his brain to Peyton Manning’s. But sometimes that can be detrimental to trusting your eyes and making a quick decision. Often Kizer hangs onto the ball too long and I wonder if he’s just overthinking things. Maybe he should’ve stayed in school longer, but when you have the chance to be a first round pick you should probably take it. Just ask Jevan Snead. In the end, DeShone checks every single physical box for an NFL quarterback, but so did E.J. Manuel. I don’t feel rock solid about this projection, but I just don’t see the feel for the game in Kizer and I think he’ll have a Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles career because of it. Maybe the Jets will take him and continue their quarterback curse.