2021: Receivers
Devonta Smith-WR-Alabama-6’0”-166-Top 20-97
Massive numbers in college. DeVonta increased his production in nearly every category each year he spent with the Crimson Tide notching the Heisman Trophy in 2020. Now let’s deal with the big question first – he’s too skinny right? Yes, he’s a twig at 166lbs, and I think he needs to stay that way for the most part to retain his elite traits i.e. change of direction. The question is, will he stay healthy? It’s hard to project but let’s look at some examples:
· Ted Ginn, 175lbs – Averaged 1 game missed per season in first 11 years
· DeSean Jackson, 170lbs - Averaged 2 games missed per season in first 10 years
· Calvin Ridley, 190lbs – Averages 1.5 games missed per season
· Will Fuller, 185lbs – Averages 5.4 games missed per season
As we can see, it’s not clear that sub 180lb receivers have greater injury potential. Some might even argue the lighter load could reduce soft tissue and non-contact injuries. All of this is to say – I’m less worried about the injury potential with Smitty than most. Which is why he is my top receiver in this draft. DeVonta is a fantastic route runner, excellent with change of direction ability, who wins contested footballs, and works back to the quarterback as well as any prospect I’ve ever seen, and above all, he’s always open. You watch him on film and I’m not blown away by his explosion or top end speed, but no one can stay with him. It’s that Jerry Rice, Wes Welker trait of football speed. I don’t know what Smitty would run in the 40, but he plays football with exceptional speed where people can’t stay with him. For that reason, plus his high level feel for the receiver spot, I think he belong in the top 10.
Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama-5’10”-180-Top 15-96
When I heard the Tyreek Hill comparisons, I scoffed. Waddle clearly doesn’t have the quicks and speed of the Cheetah, but he does have that rare skillset of top end speed mixed with high compete level at the point of the catch. The most underrated part of Tyreek’s game is his ability at 5’8” to win 50/50 balls. Waddle has that trait. At a 4.38 40 with open field ability Waddle can be a game wreaker. Initially I thought Brandin Cooks was a comparison, but Waddle has way more YAC ability for that comp. Far superior prospect to Henry Ruggs last year. I expect Waddle to be drafted before DeVonta but really it’s a toss up who will be the better pro.
Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU-6’0”-201-Top 10-95
Reminds me of a cross between Odell Beckham and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Strong, explosive athlete, but I don’t see high level route running chops right now. Ja’Marr opted out of the 2020 season, which definitely seemed like the right move given his draft standing could only go down. But it leaves a gap in his resume that makes you wonder, is 2021 Ja’Marr Chase another level better than the 2019 version we watched light up the SEC? Or was he just hanging out for the last 18 months? Most likely the former because he blew people’s socks off with his pro day workout clocking a 4.38 in the 40 and leaping 41 inches. For reference, Odell jumped 37”. The bottom-line on Chase is he had exceptional production for one season in the greatest offense in College Football history, he is a high level explosive athlete, but he has average size and right now average route running ability at the position. Of those 4 categories, I need a guy with 3 out of 4 to be a top ten player for me, so he drops into the teens. Not a very far drop, but I’m not comfortable projecting his route running improvements without the game film to display it.
Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota-6’0”-190-1st/2nd-91
Been watching him for a few years and was always impressed with his speed and the way he attacks the football. He seems taller than 6’1” but with 33” arms he plays at least 2 inches taller. A late bloomer, Bateman didn’t emerge until his Senior year in High School but he has been filling up the stat sheet ever since and I see no reason it should slow down at the next level.
Kadarious Toney-WR-Florida-6’0”-193-1st/2nd-86
Reminds me a lot of Curtis Samuel coming out of Ohio State. Strong player with the ball in his hands combined with great speed. Makes strong cuts and is developing his route running ability. Toney does lose his footing a lot and could use some Alvin Kamara balance training. But, given some developmental time he can become a real weapon offensively and in the return game.
Seth Williams-WR-Auburn-6’3”-211-3rd Day-68
Been watching this dude for years with the Auburn Tigers. Always had the ability to be a big play machine and take over games but all too often he was held back by poor QB play and terrible offensive schemes. He has the tools to be a player at the next level given his size and 4.5 speed, someone will just need to unlock his development.