2015 NFL Draft: Quarterback

Writing these draft guides I always agonize over quarterbacks. It's the most important position on the field, yet seemingly everyone is terrible at predicting NFL success. Consider his holiness, Bill Belichick. In his tenure of 15 glorious years he has drafted 8 QBs. Their names are: Jimmy Garappolo, Ryan Mallett, Zac Robinson, Kevin O'Connell, Matt Cassel, Kliff Kingsbury, Rohan Davey, and Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. Granted it has never been a great need for the Patriots considering Belichick (The Father) inherited Bledsoe and his 100 million dollar contract and then was blessed with Brady (The Son) thanks to Dick Rehbein (The Holy Ghost). But the Patriots have only produced back-up QBs (Sorry Cassel) and they've spent 3 picks combined in rounds 2 and 3 on the position. The best quarterback we've produced since 2001 may be Brian Hoyer and he was an undrafted free agent. For comparisons sake the Redskins have been actively searching for a QB for the same 15 year period and have drafted 9 of them. Their names are: RG3, Kirk Cousins, Colt Brennan, Jordan Palmer, Jason Campbell, Gibram Hamden, Patrick Ramsey, Sage Rosenfels, and Todd Husak (3 picks after Brady). That list includes 3 first round picks not to mention the other two 1st rounders and the 2nd rounder traded to acquire RG3 and the3rd rounder and 43 million dollar contract for Mark Brunell. That's a lot of resources for a whole lot of nothing in return (I'm not convinced RG3 is done, he's just a huge question mark right now). The point is, people get paid a lot of money to project QBs and nobody seems to do a good job which is why I have effectively no chance of doing it myself. As I seem to always say, the value of the QB position inflates the draft value of these prospects to such epic proportions that even likely busts belong in the first 3 rounds. For example, a pro bowl right tackle is worth a mid 2nd round pick, a pro bowl quarterback is worth the number one overall pick every single time. And projecting a pro bowl right tackle is about 80%, whereas projecting a probowl QB is less than 10%. That's the nature of the NFL. That being said, this QB class reminds me of the 2010 draft with Sam Bradford, Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, and Colt McCoy. There are only two players who can start at the next level and after that there’s maybe a handful of back-ups. This draft is interesting because no teams absolutely need to draft a quarterback, but about 8 might pull the trigger in the first round. We’ll see how it plays out.

Jameis Winston*-QB-Florida State-6’4”-231-1st Overall-99

I have lots of issues with this kid. #1 he beat my Auburn Tigers in the 2013 National Championship game, #2 he's had multiple off the field issues (keyword multiple), #3 he's only played two seasons of college football, #4 winning the Heisman and National Championship as a Freshman turned his ego into the wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube man and #5 he threw 18 picks in 14 games in 2014. That's a lot of downsides for the guy I think should be the first player off the board. You cannot deny the 27-1 record in college, or the NFL body and athleticism. Seemingly every time you watch him play (except this year's Rose Bowl) he's leading his team to victory in the 2nd half. He makes confident throws across the middle into tight coverage that remind me of Aaron Rodgers. He just turned 21. He has swagger. I absolutely do not think he is a surefire prospect. I do think at this point he is more pro ready than Cam Newton, RG3, and Blake Bortles were heading into the draft. He has all the skills to be a top ten QB in the NFL. On the field I'm worried about his long Byron Leftwich delivery and occasional sourpuss demeanor. Off the field I don't know if he'll make football his number one priority. Jameis is certainly not a sure thing. But he is the most skilled and accomplished pocket quarterback since Andrew Luck.

Marcus Mariota*-QB-Oregon-6’4”-222-Top 15-96

He’s the wildcard of this draft. I would be surprised if someone didn’t trade up to get him whether that’s at 5th or 25th overall. Everyone wants to know: Is Mariota just a system quarterback? The answer is: Who the fuck cares. He’s great in the system they ran at Oregon so why not put him in the same situation. The problem is that means catering the entire offense to Mariota all the way from play caller to right guard. His best assets are movement and accuracy. He doesn’t have a cannon, but he can put the ball on the money from the pocket or on the move. His speed (4.52 in the 40) brings the Colin Kaepernick effect to the offense. Mariota displayed self preservation instincts that RG3 desperately needs to learn. I like his pocket awareness but he doesn’t have much experience standing in there. But can you win a Super Bowl on Mariota’s right arm? I don’t know. He was a winner at Oregon. He’s very laid back and I worry if he’ll be able to inspire teammates. Bottomline is he’s a very good QB prospect and that means a top 10 pick. He’s absolutely a better prospect than Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. He’s only a hair behind RG3 in my book. I think in the end his success in the pro’s all comes down to fit. He’s a poor fit in Tampa but a great fit in Philly. I just have a gut feeling he’s going to succeed, can’t explain it but I really fucking hope he doesn’t become a Jet.

Bryce Petty-QB-Baylor-6’3”-230-Round/Day 3-70

Has the look of an NFL QB, but I think he’s a backup. Played in the fast paced ball fake-centric Baylor offense often relying on pre snap reads. Has a quick and strong delivery that hovers around the ¾ arm slot. Has enough arm strength but questionable accuracy. Put up big numbers in their bowl game against Michigan State but I could tell while watching the game that he wasn’t a high draft pick. Looked better as a Junior than as a Senior and I don’t see him turning it around. Should be drafted to backup Mariota.

Sean Mannion-QB-Oregon State-6’6”-229-Day 3-65

He’s a decent prospect. One of the very few QB’s in this draft that I believe has starter potential, emphasis on potential. He’s a big slow pocket quarterback in the Ryan Mallett and Mike Glennon tradition, though he doesn’t have as big an arm as either of them. He seems to trust his reads and his ability which is step one to being an NFL QB. Nothing exceptional about the way he throws the ball, but nothing that needs immediate fixing either. Put up 4,600 yards as a Junior but came crashing down to Earth as a Senior notching 3,100 yards at a 62% completion rate. The drop off is tied to poor O-line play and Brandin Cooks departure. I think he has a chance to be a marginal starter but his floor is a back-up QB which brings him up into the 4th round for me.

Garrett Grayson-QB-Colorado State-6’2”-213-Day 2-61

Smaller school prospect who turned some heads in 2014 throwing for 4,000 yards. He’s a bit on the small side for an NFL QB but he’s well built. He’s the only 2nd tier QB that still appears to be improving. Some people are real high on him because he throws a good deep ball, but I’m skeptical. Has a pretty good arm. Not the most accurate at times probably because he fails to reset his footwork. Little bit of elongated delivery that might be an issue, but he can get rid of the ball quickly when hurried. Solid athleticism running in the 4.7’s at his pro day. He has room to grow, but I don’t see the anticipation and processing that he’s going to need at the next level.

Brett Hundley*-QB-UCLA-6’3”226-Round/Day 3-55

Definitely has intriguing traits in a QB prospect. Good athleticism with a 4.63 in the 40 and a sub 4 in the 20 yard shuttle. Ran a zone read scheme for the Bruins and it will be a challenge moving to a pro style offense if that’s where he winds up. He’s been a good player for years in the PAC 10 but the questions remain about his ability to carry a team through the air. Has a low release point and average delivery speed. His arm strength is my biggest concern. You don’t need a rocket to succeed in the NFL, but if you have a wet noodle you have to have some Drew Brees level craftiness. I don’t see Hundley being able to make sideline throws at the next level. I really want to like him and say he’s a valuable 2nd round pick with upside but in my gut I don’t see it. Maybe it’s because I saw UCLA fold last year against Utah but I just don’t see him making it as a quality starter. His ceiling is Jason Campbell.