2024: Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams- QB – USC - 98

Isn’t draft season fun. You find yourself talking about how the #1 player paints his nails or allegedly wants an ownership stake with the team that drafted him. Irrelevant! Crying in the stands with his parents after a tough loss? He was 21 years old! He’s a generational prospect? Shut up and stop reaching for the highest superlative at all times. First time I saw Caleb Williams was when he replaced Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry against Texas. Rattler was the top recruit in the country next in line after Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray won back-to-back Heisman’s quarterbacking the Sooners. Rattler wasn’t getting it done so they bring in the freshman, Williams, who brings the team to life. Since then he’s been at the top of the list for Draftniks like me. Caleb has the playmaking gene. It’s his greatest trait, he has that ability to make things happen. It can also be his greatest downfall because he waits so long for the playmaking opportunity that he takes sacks and fumbles. That’s the rub with him. In order to access his greatest strength you open the door to his greatest weakness. Now, playing for Lincoln Riley is famously great for quarterbacks. We saw that in 2022 during Caleb’s own Heisman campaign. Things changed in 2023 after they lost good pieces on the outside and the offensive line fell apart. Honestly I think going through a crappy season was good preparation to going to the NFL. Up until then, Caleb had been in the perfect QB situation and that’s guaranteed to not be the case in the NFL. Physically he is a little short, well built, durable, and moves surprisingly well. Similar movement to Mahomes in that he does not look fast, but people can’t seem to catch him. Williams has fantastic arm talent and can do basically whatever he wants with the football. He absolutely can run the offense in structure. The questions are: Will he get impatient with structure? And when he has to break it, will he be reckless? Judging by how it went with Lincoln Riley, Caleb is inclined to breaking structure and being reckless. But if an NFL coaching staff can convince him to run the offense for at least 50% of the time and then when he freelances, teach him to do so with ball security, the sky is the limit. He’s got MVP upside. That’s always worth a top 5 pick.

Drake Maye - QB – North Carolina - 97

Every year there’s a prospect that just gets run through the ringer. Drake Maye is this year’s guy. Every day you can find a story saying insiders or analysts or team executives believe Maye could be Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. And then the next day the articles are about how Drake Maye is the 6th best QB in this draft and he will get his coach fired. Up and down and all around. Let’s talk brass tax. If Drake Maye came out after the 2022 season, he would have been a top 5 pick, period. He couldn’t because he was only 2 years out of high school, but that’s how good that year was. Now after the 2023 season which saw him lose the offensive coach that recruited him, his top receiver, and multiple offensive lineman, the criticisms are rolling in. To his credit, it does not seem to be bothering Maye at all. Physically, he has what you want. Among the top 3 quarterbacks, Maye checks the most boxes physically. Height, bulk, enough speed, enough arm strength, he’s got them. Drake displays toughness on the regular and is the most likely of the top quarterbacks to be available for 17 games. Now, the downsides. His accuracy is average. His delivery is a little elongated. His level of competition in college was average. He regressed from his age 20 season to his age 21 season. All of these top quarterbacks have had down years at some point, typically when they’re coaching and surrounding talent were not top notch. Ask yourself, why is Drake Maye’s down 2023 more important than Jayden Daniel’s mediocre 2019-2022? Another few notes: Drake Maye comes from an elite athletic family and was a great basketball player himself. He’s still only 21 years old and will continue to develop physically and mentally. His teammates love him. Maye really does have Josh Allen upside, and sure he could be Jameis Winston too, but I’d bet on the former.

Jayden Daniels - QB – LSU - 94

His tools really pop. Compact delivery with high velocity and accuracy. Literally runs past people in the SEC. I saw his take a QB draw against Ole Miss for 60 yards and ran past each level of the defense even when they had the angle on him. When there is a pressure point in the pocket he can escape and either scramble or extend to throw. Jayden is accurate short, can hit the deep ball, and get the rock anywhere on the field. Now for the worries. Number 1: he’s listed at 210, weighed at 210 at LSU, but looks about 190 on film. And it’s not just the weight, he gets absolutely rocked at least once a game. Credit to him he gets up and stays in the game, but those hits would only get worse at the next level. I think he’s so fast that he always thinks he can run past people, but this habit needs to change and I expect it to. So durability concerns are big. Second, I don’t see any adversity on the LSU tape. The offensive line is terrific. Defenses don’t blitz because they’re worried about the big play. The wide receivers are wide open all the time and make plays after the catch. I want to see him overcome some poor play around him because he’s going to get drafted to a bad team and will need to elevate above the surrounding limitations. Sure, they overcame adversity on the scoreboard a few times, but I’m talking about the on-field impediments to his play. And lastly, he’s 23, played 5 years of college ball, and was never a great player until his final season. Now it was one of the best seasons ever, but why? Surrounding talent and scheme were huge. Daniels’ development was also huge. But can you expect those things to continue at the next level? I’m not so sure. I think Jayden’s floor is pretty high, a better passing Mariota, but I think his ceiling is capped around where Kyler Murray is right now. I don’t see Daniels’ as Houston Texan DeShaun Watson, more like Alex Smith with a downfield game.

Michael Penix - QB – Washington - 88

Very difficult evaluation because of the health concerns. This kid has arm talent that you dream about. Might be the best go route passer since RG3. His game is very reminiscent of Geno Smith. Penix didn’t really pop until 2023 after years at Indiana, and his team was absolutely stacked. Fantastic offensive line, 3 receivers that will play well at the next level, and a power running game to boot. I haven’t seen him under pressure much and his foot quickness is lacking so I put him in the pocket passer pool which is not only out of fashion, but has a high bust rate. All that said, I would love to see him get a chance because you can’t teach this level of arm talent.

J.J. McCarthy - QB – Michigan - 87

Classic late riser. Should’ve seen this coming. McCarthy checks the boxes on the measurables, was coached by a QB whisperer, and is coming off an undefeated championship season. All of that is true. He has a rocket arm and above average athleticism. The sticking point is how little was asked of him in the Michigan offense. Maybe he has more playmaking potential, but in that scheme, with that talent, all he needed to do was execute the script. J.J. throws well on the move and escapes the pocket well. He needs to throw short passes less than 100mph. He reminds me of a developmental version of Andy Dalton and that means round 2. Could definitely develop to be better, but that’s where he sits for me.

Bo Nix - QB – Oregon - 85

As an Auburn fan, I’ve been scratching my head about Bo Nix’s play in Eugene. Could that really be the same guy who had negative success for the Tigers? Nix has proved me wrong big time and became an elite college QB for the Ducks. His stats are tremendous but super inflated by the short passing game and YAC yardage. I’d love to see quarterback stats re-ranked with YAC removed. Physically, Bo Nix is a first round quarterback. He has all the talent that made him a top recruit and has built his body to withstand anything. During the PAC 12 championship loss to Washington, you could feel his passion for the game and the love his teammates have for him. The good news for Nix is that we know he excels in the spread offense, and any team drafting him won’t go back to an under center in the box scheme like he ran at Auburn.

Sam Hartman - QB – Notre Dame - 70

Wake Forest Sam Hartman is my favorite Sam Hartman. That kid took an undermanned, low talent team, and made them relevant. Once he transferred to Notre Dame you could feel big man on campus energy, and honestly it’s a turn off. But that’s beside the point. Hartman does a lot of things you need in today’s NFL. He throws with rhythm, accuracy, and enough velocity. He can escape and make plays with his legs or arm outside the pocket. I think he could develop, and could have a Brock Purdy type game at the next level. But the nagging memories of missed opportunities at the end of games leads me to believe that Hartman doesn’t have the “it” factor, despite his devilish good looks, and that puts him in the 4th for me.

Spencer Rattler - QB – South Carolina - 68

The only quarterback in this class that checks all Bill Parcell’s boxes for a quarterback prospect. Rattler was the number one recruit out of high school and seemed destined to be the next Hesiman winner in Norman. After getting benched in favor of Caleb Williams, he soldiered on with the Gamecocks and put together a respectable collegiate career. Spencer has a lot of things you like. High level arm ability, escapability, and maturity as a quarterback. I worry about his ability to see downfield and think his athleticism is a step slow for the NFL level. Sometimes you never know with QBs and it’s worth throwing a mid round pick at a potential starting QB, even if he winds up as a backup which I think is Rattler’s floor.

Joe Milton - QB – Tennessee - 65

Only watched him once live, but as soon as you see Joe Milton let the ball fly, you’re interested. God could not create a better specimen as a pocket passer. Milton was hampered by competition throughout his collegiate journey. Couldn’t win the starting job at Michigan. Couldn’t beat out 24 year old Hendon Hooker for the Tennessee job. As a super senior, Joe got his chance. You can see all the tools that would translate, except the most important, accuracy. It’s absolutely imperative for a pocket passer to be accurate in tight windows because you don’t have the luxury of throwing into the larger windows that develop when a defense breaks down. Joe hasn’t shown this yet, which moves him to day 3 for me. But god damn, what a piece of clay to mold, if you can.

Jordan Travis – QB – Florida St. - 54

What a missed chance for Florida State this year. Undefeated, snubbed from the playoff because their star quarterback got injured. Travis was putting together a terrific season highlighted by accurate passes, timely running, and solid game management. I added him as an honorary prospect because I enjoyed watching him play, but I don’t see the physical tools – arm strength, anticipation, downfield accuracy – to be a plus player in the NFL.