2018 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks
What a questionable quarterback class. Very reminiscent of the 2011 class that featured Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, and Andy Dalton. Every guy has a knock on him and there’s no consensus at the top of the heap. We can look back at 2011 and think Cam was a no brainer first overall, but that was not the case at the time. Especially with Von Miller and A.J. Green on the board. This year is quite similar. Once again there are 5 or so QBs that are viewed as 1st round picks, although not everyone sees it that way. So here we go, the 2018 QB class that will carry the fortunes of 5+ NFL franchises:
Baker Mayfield-QB-Oklahoma-6’1”-215-Top 15-96
Baker’s one of the hardest evaluations I’ve ever had. The non-stop Johnny Manziel comparisons seem over the top, but they are eerily similar. My knock on Johnny was that he was surrounded with a great o-line and skill players and was also a head case off the field. Those same things are true about Baker. They’re both undersized which I think is overblown. I don’t want them to be similar prospects because I loved watching Baker and we all know how Manziel’s NFL career wound up. But the similarities are striking. What about the differences? On the field, Baker has far superior arm talent. People often talk about arm strength or accuracy, but arm talent is it’s own thing in my book. It’s kind of like basketball players who just have a knack for finishing at the hoop like Kyrie. I view arm talent as the ability to make tight window passes when the QB is on the move or under pressure. Aaron Rodgers is the king of this, Cam Newton has it too, and Carson Wentz is hot on his heels. It’s the “it” factor throwing the football. Manziel hit wide open receivers and threw jump balls, Baker Mayfield has arm talent. But that’s not all it takes to be successful. Geno Smith had arm talent in college. Now off the field there’s another venn diagram between Manziel and Mayfield. Both had trouble with authority, Baker drunkenly ran from the cops just over a year ago. But Manziel was thought of as a spoiled rich kid. Whereas Baker’s a fighter. He had zero division 1 scholarships and proceeded to walk-on at Texas Tech becoming probably the first opening day starting quarterback as a true freshman walk-on this century. Then he transferred to Oklahoma to sit out a year and walk-on again, this time for the Sooners. There he supplants Trevor Knight, a good young QB who led them to the Citrus Bowl, and Baker starts every game he was eligible since. It seems like you simply can’t keep this kid off the field. Can you sense a but coming? The Rose Bowl against Georgia. His only game as a Heisman winner on the biggest stage, he simply didn’t do enough. Yes Georgia had a very good defense and he took them to double OT, but we’re talking about an NFL caliber QB that couldn’t make the plays he needed to win. And the opportunities were there. This is the crux of it, Mayfield is unquestionably a playmaker, but is he an NFL playmaker? He has some essential traits. He processes information quickly as displayed by him clearly being the best QB in the draft at reading the entire field. He also has Russell Wilson type ability to escape pressure and find people downfield, though Wilson is more slippery. There’s also the fact that Mayfield brings infectious competitiveness and enthusiasm that can create an on-field culture for a team. I don’t know how to quantify this value, but it gives his team an identity. Ugh I’m so torn I’ll resort to pro-con. Reasons he can succeed are: arm talent, ball protection, successful track record, competitive leader, pocket feel and mobility, strong family foundation, underdog attitude. Reasons he could fail: off-field transgressions, brash nature could turn off teammates, level of defensive competition. Seems like the pro’s definitely have it, he’s a cross between Russell Wilson (playing style) and Philip Rivers (attitude).
Lamar Jackson-QB-Louisville-6’2”-216-1st-96
What raw skills do you want to see in a quarterback? Chances are Lamar Jackson checks those boxes. The do-everything quarterback comes out as a two year starter during which he won the heisman trophy and followed that up with arguably a better statistical season as a Junior. Each year he was over 5000 total yards and averaged 48 total TD’s per season. Jackson is the most electric college football player in some time, and that’s not a slight to Baker Mayfield, it’s just true. Lamar has plenty of height plus he’s bulked up from a more slight playing weight of 205. On the field he displays tremendous toughness and I’m not worried about him holding up because he has a knack for slipping big hits. The ball absolutely jumps out of his hand, more arm strength than you can ask for. The question marks come from interceptions, nearly 1 per game, and the related accuracy and decision making issues. Actually, Lamar has a higher adjusted completion percentage (72%) than Sam Darnold (70%), a stat that corrects for drops and throwaways. I also wondered about level of competition before realizing Louisville is in the ACC, hence the yearly matchup with Clemson. Now the rebuttal to his detractors is: he played in a complex offense under Bobby Petrino that demanded more from the quarterback than any of the other prospects this year. Everyone also agrees that Jackson’s surrounding cast was not highly talented particular on the offensive line as he was pressured on nearly 40% of dropbacks in 2017. He’s known as a high character guy which comes through on the field with no showboating and every down competitiveness. You can tell how much he cares by his relentlessness and how he reacts when he’s not perfect. For the life of me I can’t figure out why Marcus Mariota was a top 2 pick and this kid might drop to day 2. Mariota had better accuracy and won more games, but Jackson played in an advanced offense with less help and has more physical talent. Neither were public facing guys but both are respected. I think Lamar belongs in the top 10. I don’t feel super strongly about him, but I just don’t understand how a player of this talent and accomplishment with limited red flags is not a top 10 pick. The 2016 game against Houston worried me, but after revisiting it and seeing the complete lack of blocking that led to 11 sacks, I don’t hang that on him. Decision making in crucial times and accuracy are the only downsides and both can be improved with more reps and proper coaching. Jackson is more physically talented than Deshaun Watson and Lamar just turned 21, plenty of time for improvement. Doesn’t he just seem like the type of guy we’ll look back 2 years from now and say, “How in the world do you draft these other quarterbacks ahead of Lamar Jackson?”
Josh Rosen-QB-UCLA-6’4”-226-Top 15-89
I was all ready to write a scathing review but after checking out the film my opinion has changed. Rosen came out of high school as a phenom. Very highly touted, he became the immediate starter as a true freshman. I think a large part of his off-field concerns (not coachable, me first, teammates don’t look to him etc.) stem from being the wonder kid at such a young age. That doesn’t mean those things aren’t concerning, just means when he’s surrounded by a locker room full of millionaire savages he might find his place. On the field I see why he is so highly regarded. He has the stature of a pocket passer and appears to be in complete control of the offense. Rosen handles the rush much better than I expected and he’s accurate even when he has to move and reset. The problem is lack of chunk plays. He has average arm strength, which isn’t a deal breaker, but he doesn’t seem to have the feel for downfield passing in the way Baker Mayfield or even Lamar Jackson do. I believe he has the pocket presence, accuracy, and processing ability to play quarterback effectively at the next level, I just don’t see him consistently making the downfield plays that are often needed to get drives into the endzone. That’s not to say he’s a bad prospect, just means his game is similar to Sam Bradford which requires a lot of help to be a Super Bowl contender. The one caveat to that is his comfort throwing in the middle of the field. If Rosen lands in a system that exploits the middle of the field, like the Patriots or Saints, he can be a franchise QB. I hope for his sake that whoever drafts him tries to build that passing attack between the numbers. On the field he’s a first round QB, but the durability concerns from surgery on his throwing shoulder and two concussions in 2017 just drop him into the second for me. I view him as the safest QB prospect in this draft. Also, Jim Mora Jr.’s comments got a lot of buzz, but that guy seems like a dope. He’s supposed to be a defensive guy but UCLA gave up 37 points per game last year. The o-line was a joke and receivers couldn’t keep their hands on the ball. Now that I got that off my chest, Rosen turned out to be better than I expected. But questions about his downfield play and staying on the field take him from a Jared Goff type prospect down closer to Andy Dalton. Oh and Josh just turned 21 in 2018, youngin’.
Sam Darnold-QB-USC-6’3”-221-Top 5-82
The Rose Bowl two years ago was one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen and Darnold was spectacular. That may be the only nice thing I have to say about him. He looks the part of NFL QB with stature, arm strength and enough mobility (4.85 second 40). Okay maybe two things. My biggest concern with him is pocket awareness. Watching him the last few years and reviewing the film, he does not handle pressure well. I believe that quality is the bust maker. He also threw 13 picks and fumbled 11 times this year while seeing a 4% decrease in completion percentage and reduction in touchdowns. I don’t mean to beat up on him, but he strikes me as the classic prospect who checks all the standard boxes (size, arm, mobility, pedigree, character) but doesn’t have that immeasurable football ability. That knack for making plays when they’re needed. Now he still has value because he still has potential to develop and there’s no reason he can’t be a capable back-up, but I don’t see him as a franchise quarterback. He is a slightly better prospect than DeShone Kizer because Darnold can throw dimes at points.
Josh Allen-QB-Wyoming-6’5”-237-Top 10-79
Big ole boy. As everyone is saying, this kid has a hose. Can make any throw you ask of him forcing defenses to defend every blade of grass. On top of that he has plus mobility. So to summarize: Allen has size, strength, arm strength, and mobility. That spells first round QB and that may cause the Browns to scoop him at number 1. Unfortunately there are gigantic problems with his game. First and foremost what we keep hearing about, accuracy. Sub 60% completions is a very bad sign, and even his adjusted completion percentage was only 66.5%, good for 48th in this year's class. Watch the tape, he misses too many throws. Allen has enough athleticism to escape the pocket at times, but the unfortunate fact is right now he doesn’t throw the ball well in the pocket under pressure or while he’s on the move. After escaping the pocket and resetting himself he can make accurate throws, but that’s a time luxury he won’t often be afforded at the next level. The other red flag is level of competition. I know there’s a list of guys that didn’t play at premier schools and succeeded at the next level. But Josh Allen played a couple big opponents and didn’t rise to the occasion. Versus Iowa, 4.3 yards per attempt, 0 TD’s and 2 picks. Oregon, 9/24 for 64 yards and an INT. That doesn’t project well to the NFL with tight throwing windows and pressure being a constant problem. Now, I’ve seen a few interviews and the kid is very likeable. His teammates seem to love him, he believed in himself enough to turn zero scholarship offers into being a likely first round pick. Fact of the matter is, Allen makes highlight plays that wow you, but there are just too many mistakes. I’m definitely rooting for him, but at this point he doesn’t have the traits you need to be a successful modern quarterback. Reminds me of Paxton Lynch, but the true comparison is Joe Willie Namath. Hall of Famer in the 1960’s, not built for the NFL in the 2020’s.
Quinton Flowers-QB-USF-5’10”-214-Undrafted-60
I had a great time watching Flowers play last year. He’s electric on the field, kind of like Lamar Jackson Short. He’s clearly small for an NFL QB and had too many accuracy concerns, but he seemed to have the “it” factor. Flowers elevates the play of teammates. His strengths are running ability and arm strength. He was certainly a run first QB but when it’s needed he’s capable of making big plays through the air. Quinton lost both parents and a step brother and is a now a father himself. There’s something about him, he’s a playmaker with attributes that translate, he just needs to improve his footwork to bring his accuracy up. And if he doesn’t work out at QB he has the size to play running back where his understanding of protections should help him as a 3rd down back. I just hope he gets an opportunity, Arizona scoop this kid in the 5th round. Backing up Sam Bradford might as well be a starting position. Lamar Jackson Short, same electric skills with one tenth the draft value.