2021: Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson-6’6”-213-1st Overall-100
Near perfect QB prospect. He’s my second highest all-time ranking behind only Andrew Luck. Lawrence has all the measurables, all the production, and the winning pedigree you want to see in an elite prospect. His competitiveness is on full display under the biggest spotlight. The only thing that pushes him behind Luck for me is size. At 215 lbs I am slightly concerned about his ability to take the hits at the next level. We saw the toll that took on Andrew Luck and he was a full 30 pounds heavier than Lawrence. That being said, Trevor Lawrence is a proven winner, with leadership traits, and all the physical tools you need to be elite at the next level, and that’s what I expect him to be.
Zach Wilson-QB-BYU-6’2”-214-2nd Overall-97
I first noticed Zach Wilson in 2019, I thought he was moving around and slinging it like Baker Mayfield. Come to find out by the end of 2020 that he became a top 5 prospect. Wilson could not be coming along at a better time for his stock given the plethora of mobile, off-platform quarterbacks succeeding to varying degrees in the NFL right now. The blemish on Zach’s resume is the loss to Coastal Carolina which looked bad when I watched it live, but upon reviewing the film I think he played fine. He was under pressure most of the night but stood tall, delivered catchable balls in many circumstances and ultimately they just lost to a better team. Watching several other games, his skills simply jump out. Wilson moves effortlessly, can throw from seemingly any foot position and delivers accurate passes all over the field. Not the tallest or biggest guy, he has an electric playing style that should engage fans from minute 1. More mobile Baker Mayfield without the well displayed leadership traits.
Mac Jones-QB-Alabama-6’3”-217-1st Round-94
The first game I watched was the Georgia game, and I was less than impressed. He seemed uncomfortable with pressure the entire game and was bailed out by his All-World receivers time after time. Mac Jones did finish that game with over 400 yards passing and 4 TD’s, plus the all-important victory. After watching a few more games, his pocket presence continually stands out. Mac manipulates the pocket at a very high level for a college quarterback and so much of that leads to his accuracy throwing the ball. Not exceptional arm talent and below average physically with limited mobility lowers his ceiling, but we know pocket quarterbacks can still be successful in today’s NFL. The way his teammates speak about him makes me even more confident in him.
Justin Fields-QB-Ohio State-6’3”-227-Top 20-93
What a controversial draft season for Justin Fields. It’s like his evaluations are the ground everyone is fighting over. Where to begin, how about with the demonstrable fact that he is physically a supremely gifted quarterback prospect with multiple years of very very successful experience at a top program playing elite competition. Sounds like a no brainer right? You would think so. When I watch the film I see way too many throws missing high. I’m willing to bet this is a mechanics issue which many people have pointed out will be an area of development for Fields. Can he get that squared away? That’s really my big question. Everything else checks out. Leadership? He effectively willed the Big 10 to have a season this year when he could have taken it easy and breezed to being a 1st round pick in this draft. I’ll let that example serve as proof of his love for football too. Toughness? He got ROCKED in the playoff game against Clemson and just kept coming. Check. Also, anyone saying ‘he couldn’t beat out Jake Fromm’, Fromm brought Georgia to overtime in the National Championship game as a Freshman so it would’ve taken a helluva lot to bench him. Yet despite all these reasons, I’m not convinced. I don’t know why, but I can’t get him into the top 15 for me.
Trey Lance-QB-North Dakota State-6’4”-224-Top 20-89
Lance is a traits player that is a major projection into the NFL. The 2020 season lasted only 1 game for NDSU so we really can only go off 2019 tape for Trey. Fortunate for him that was a National Championship season in FCS for the Bison. Lance was undoubtedly the best player on the team, although I am concerned that they used him so much as a runner instead of letting his arm do the work. As a speed builder, Lance lacks the elusiveness that seems to be the number 1 athletic trait for QBs right now i.e. Mahomes, Rodgers, Russell Wilson. This kid has tons of arm strength but lacks the touch and accuracy you want from a first round player at the position. The Josh Allen comps are okay because they are both physically gifted players from non-Power 5 schools, but Josh Allen beats Lance in each and every physical trait. However, Trey was a winner at NDSU, although they win with everyone. One thing working in Lance’s favor is he has by far the most under center experience of the top group of QBs in this class. And also people rave about his personality and intelligence. The bottomline is Lance has on-field and off-field traits to be a pro-bowl quarterback and that will spur someone to take him in the top half of round 1.
Davis Mills-QB-Stanford-6’4”-217-2nd Day-82
This guy intrigues me. As soon as you see him you’re like ‘this dude looks like a QB’. Immediately thought of Jimmy Garappolo and Peyton Manning, Mills moves his feet rapidly from a wide base so he always seems balanced through the throw. I also thought of Mark Pryor, the former pitcher famed for having flawless mechanics. Mills seems like he fits that mold. He has good mobility as well and can make some plays outside the pocket, but the biggest on field hurdle for me is the accuracy issues. He simply missed too many throws. Off the field, there’s a lot to pick through. Coming out of High School he was the number 1 QB recruit. After redshirting his first year he was a back-up to begin the next two seasons, getting on the field halfway through the 2019 season after the starter got injured. Mills was good, not great for the rest of his time in Palo Alto. He looks the part, has the pedigree, comes from a pro style system with exceptional coaching…but why isn’t he better? That’s what teams will ask themselves, and whoever has the best feeling about unlocking those gifts will take him early on day 2.
Kyle Trask-QB-Florida-6’5”-236-2nd Day-77
Trask never started in high school but still managed to lock in a scholarship to UF where he sat for a few years before emerging in 2019. In 2020 he lit it up winding up as a Heisman Finalist and winning the SEC East. Old school QB with great height and size, he lacks athleticism in a big way. Delivers the ball with really nice touch, sometimes too much. At the end of the day I’m not convinced that he has the arm talent to be a starting NFL quarterback, and with below average athletic traits he’s a middle round pick.
Kellen Mond-QB-Texas A&M-6’3”-211-3rd Round/Day-60
People keep telling me about him but my first thought was always, that guy? That guy I saw get his ass kicked repeatedly in college. I get it, he’s got good size, good stats, and solid athleticism. But he doesn’t play very well. Mond looks like a robot at the position. He certainly doesn’t play at 4.6 speed. If you evaluate quarterbacks with a checklist, then Kellen Mond is a borderline 1st round pick for you. But if you watch him play and receivers have trouble catching his passes, he doesn’t run away from defenders, and he carries the ball unnaturally high that should lead to fumbles, then you’re left with the conclusion that he’s not an NFL starting quarterback.